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La modélisation multi-agent : un outil pour analyser les dynamiques de passage entre formations forestières et agroforestières à l'échelle d'une région

Proton H., Nidkumagenge C., Bousquet F., Guizol P.. 1997. In : L'agroforesterie pour un développement durable. Recherche fondamentale et modélisation, applications tempérées et méditerranéennes. Montpellier : CIRAD, p. 443-447. Atelier International sur L'agroforesterie pour un Développement Rural Durable, 1997-06-23/1997-06-29, Montpellier (France).

Multi-agent models for analyzing dynamics between forest and agroforest at a region level. Relationships between different land-uses such as forests, agroforests, fallows and crops are not usually analyzed at a regional or national level. In Burundi, up to now, experts are not able to understand from where the fuelwood is coming, what is the resource and how the resource is changing through years. We analysed 9 decades of agroforestry dynamics in the Burundian region of Kayanza. In this region natural forest decreased while first fallows then crops and, more recently, agroforest appeared. We built hypotheses to explain this landuse history, and a model based on a multi-agent system. We tested the consistency between our hypotheses and the region's history by different simulation experiences. The first results show that spatial distribution and sharing rules among stakeholders are really relevant in the explanation of these dynamics.

Mots-clés : modèle de simulation; modèle; utilisation des terres; dynamique des populations; population végétale; burundi; formation végétale naturelle

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