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Evaluation of the impact of trade liberalization on food crop production and farm income in lowland Java, Indonesia

Gérard F., Erwidodo, Marty I.. 1999. In : Food security, diversification and resource management: refocusing the role of agriculture : proceedings of the twenty-third iInternational Conference of Agricultural Economists, Sacramento, California, 10-16 August 1997. Farnham : Ashgate Publishing, p. 491-507. International Conference of Agricultural Economists. 23, 1997-08-10/1997-08-16, Sacramento (Etats-Unis).

Since the mid 1980s, the Indonesian economy has been progressively liberalized, following a self adjustment process after the drop in oil prices. Despite these adverse circumstances the country managed to maintain rapid economic growth, as it had since the end of the 1960s. The gricultural sector has contributed to the dynamism of the economy. Both BULOG (the national foodcrop agency) and the Ministry of Agriculture have played a major role in that success, providing a stable environment for producers and consumers through use of va rious policy instruments, promoting adoption of new varicties and techniques for growing crops, and providing subsidized inputs. By maintaining rice price stability on domestic markets, BULOG, since 1967, has dirninished some of the risk associated with agricultural activities and contributed to social stability by isolating consumers from sharp fluctuations in staple food prices. The importance of ma et regulation for the welfare of the poor is well known (Newberry, 1989; Timmer, 1992). With the intensification of international negotiations on trade liberalization, further deregulation of the agncultural sector is probable and there is an urgent need to assess the consequences both for national production and for faim income. These issues will be discussed using a micro macro approach. The methodology is described first, the Indoneslan context is then reviewed and the results of various simulations are described and analysed.

Mots-clés : sécurité alimentaire; modèle de simulation; production alimentaire; répartition des revenus; libéralisation des échanges; indonésie

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