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Analysis of foodcrop farmers strategy by a simulation model : the climatic and economic crisis (1997-1998) in Indonesia

Gérard F., Marty I.. 1999. Nogent-sur-Marne : CIRAD-AMIS, 8 p.. (Documents de travail Ecopol, 48).

This paper used a micro-macro simulation model to evaluate the impact of the climatic and economic crisis on foodcrop producers in Indonesia. Both the climatic and the financial crises have had a negative impact on the income of Javanese foodcrop farmers. Nevertheless, agriculturai profitability has improved for those farmers who control a sufficiently large area of land and who were not too much affected by the drought , although this improvement is generally overshadowed by the decrease in non agricultural income, they are considerably better situated than other sectors of the economy. For others in the rural area, the decrease in the profitability of their activities has been combined with a sharp drop in the opportunities for off-farm employment. This has caused landless farmers and small farmers, either in the rainfed area or in the soybean zone, severe economic distress. Rural poverty is considerably aggravated by the crisis and an increase of the inequalities in the foodcrop sector, due to the crisis, is obvious.

Mots-clés : crise économique; politique économique; production alimentaire; modèle de simulation; indonésie

Document technique

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