In the most favourable production areas, hevea cultivation faces strong competition from other agricultural products such as oil palm, and from industry. Means of transportation are developing quickly in many countries. Countries, which used to be natural rubber exporters, are now becoming natural rubber importers. Where is the hevea commodity channel going? Is there going to be a shortage of natural rubber? Will prices stay low? Might breakdowns occur, and in which areas? What research is required? These are a few of the questions to which a multi-disciplinary team of about twenty researchers from Cirad has been trying find answers in a foresight study of the possible futures of the hevea commodity channel up to 2015. We considered the hevea commodity channel, that is we looked at what happens from upstream of hevea production to downstream. This approach puts a great emphasis on the operators involved at all stages of product elaboration, product trading and transformation and their relationships. In this presentation, I will explain why Cirad launched a foresight study on the hevea commodity channel and how it differs from existing forecasts. I will also present the main results of our work: the factors that we identified as decisive for the future of the commodity, and three scenarios that we have imagined. Consequences for research activities will then be examined. This foresight exercise is a tool for dialogue between operators of the hevea commodity channel. It is presented to you to for discussion and improvement. This work is still on going, and we need your participation and your remarks.