Publications des agents du Cirad


Forest dynamics models in French Guiana to answer practical forest management issues

Gourlet-Fleury S., Cornu G., Dessard H., Picard N., Sist P.. 2002. In : Sabogal César (ed.), Macedo Silva José Natalino (ed.). Manejo integrado de florestas umidas neotropicais por industrias e comunidades : aplicando resultados de pesquisa, envolvendo atores e definindo politicas publicas. Brasilia : EMBRAPA, p. 101-123. IUFRO International Symposium, 2000-12-04/2000-12-07, Belém do Para (Brésil).

The main challenge for forest managers is to define the optimal rotation period able to ensure resource sustainability on a long-term basis. For this purpose, Cirad-Forêt developed three types of forest dynamics models: a density-dependent matrix model, a hybrid model (matrix / single-tree distance-independent) and a single-tree spatial model. These models were built based on records from the experimental site of Paracou in French Guiana, where Cirad-Forêt has monitored the growth, survival and mortality of trees since 1984, None of those models has proved efficient enough to properly assess the requirements of forest managers as far as the future of particular valuable species are concerned. Simple matrix models, as those used in several forest concessions of central Africa, could bring quick answers to the managers. In this paper, we calibrate such models for the three most harvested species in French Guiana; assess the impact of the uncertainty of the input parameters on the predictions and give some advice on the proper use of this method. Finally, we show the relevance of examining separately the fate of different species, as species groups can hide endangered individual situations.

Mots-clés : forêt tropicale humide; dynamique des populations; modèle mathématique; aménagement forestier; peuplement forestier; guyane française; france

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