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May the pro-poor impacts of trade liberalisation vanish because of imperfect information ?

Boussard J.M., Gérard F., Piketty M.G., Christensen A.K., Voituriez T.. 2003. In : IAAE. Reshaping Agriculture's Contributions to Society : 25th International Conference of Agricultural Economists, Durban, South Africa, 16-22 August 2003. s.l. : s.n., 14 p.. International Conference of Agricultural Economists. 25, 2003-08-16/2003-08-22, Durban (Afrique du Sud).

In this paper, we try to evaluate the change in welfare gains and their distribution due to trade liberalization when imperfect information is considered. The results of two versions of a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, using GTAP database and representing goods as well as capital flows, are compared. In the firt one, a standard world CGE approach is followed. In the second version we include risk aversion, imperfect information and production lag in the agricultural sector. After a brief description of the two versions, changes in welfare, represented by the income of two types of household (middle-low and middle-high) in three regions (Europe, United States, Rest of the World) after agricultural trade liberalization are presented. Theoritical and political consequences of the results are discussed.

Mots-clés : libéralisation des échanges; marché des produits de base; modèle mathématique; bien-être social; prix; pauvreté; distribution économique

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