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Agricultural trade liberalization in a world of uncertainty : discussion of the results of a world CGE model

Boussard J.M., Gérard F., Piketty M.G., Christensen A.K., Voituriez T.. 2002. In : Sustainable Development and the General Equilibrium Approach. 5th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, June 5-7, 2002, Taipei, Taiwan. s.l. : s.n.. Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis. 5, 2002-06-05/2002-06-07, Taipei (Taïwan).

In this paper, we try to evaluate changes in welfare gains and their distribution due to trade liberalisation when imperfect information is considered. The results of two versions of a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, using GTAP database and representing goods as well as capital flows, are compared. In the first version, a standard world CGE approach is followed. In the second version we included risk aversion, imperfect information and production lag in the agricultural sector. After a brief description of the two versions, changes in welfare, represented by the income of two types of household (middle-low and middle-high) in three regions (Europe, United States, Rest of the World) after agricultural trade liberalisation are presented. Theoretical and political consequences of the results are discussed.

Mots-clés : pauvreté; libéralisation des échanges; analyse économique; situation économique; modèle; commerce international; marché des produits de base; revenu; politique agricole; information sur le marché; application des ordinateurs; traitement des données; modèle d'équilibre général; modélisation mathématique

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