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Risk assessment through farming systems modeling to improve farmers' decision making processes in a world of uncertainty

Penot E.. 2004. In : IRSA. Workshop n°18 : Globalisation and family farming social transformations : resistance and mutations. XI World Congress of Rural Sociology, Trondheim, Norway, 25-30 July 2004. s.l. : s.n., 16 p.. World Congress of Rural Sociology. 11, 2004-07-25/2004-07-30, Trondheim (Norvège).

Rubber farmers in Indonesia have shown a high degree of adaptability to the multiple crises that have occurred since 1997: an economic crisis linked with very low international commodity prices, a political crisis (Suharto's fall, 1998), ecological crises ("El Nino" and huge fires) as well as a social crisis due to new political and social rights. Uncertainty in, both the economic sphere (price volatility) and in ecology (climatic factors) led farmers to adapt new strategies oriented toward diversification, while at the same time profiting from existing opportunities. Long term investment in perennial crops (rubber, oil palm etc.) combined with short term strategies (off-farm activities etc) are enabling farmers to come to terms with the rapidly changing political, social and economic environment. Alternatives with a high degree of economic and ecological sustainability are preferred. Among these, complex agroforestry systems with considerable environmental benefits still play an important role. Taking the right decision at the right time is now a challenge for farmers. Modeling farming systems using "Olympe" software, a tool developed by INRA/CIRAD/IAMM to assess the impact of the volatility of prices or climatic events on incomes enables identification of thresholds and potential scenarios. It helps to understand the factors that trigger processes of both technical and organizational innovation as well as the impact of global contexts on farmers' decision making processes, and in particular, the effect of globalization, state disengagement and policies of decentralization.

Mots-clés : hevea brasiliensis; diversification; risque; système de production; modélisation; indonésie; stratégie paysanne

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