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A qualitative assessment of the risk of foot and mouth disease outbreaks outside the western boundary of Kruger National Park

Jori F., Du Plessis B., Bengis R.G., et al.. 2007. In : 7th Annual Conference of the Southern African Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Cap Town, 22-24 August 2007. s.l. : s.n., p. 89-99. Annual Conference of the Southern African Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine. 7, 2007-08-22/2007-08-24, Cape Town (Afrique du Sud).

Since the year 2000 at least five declared outbreaks of foot and mouth disease (FMD) have occurred in the area adjacent to the Kruger National Park (KNP) despite the implementation of control measures. Although only one of these butbreaks threatened the free zone, it is necessary to develop decision tools in order to help in the implementation of efficient disease control strategies. To address this issue, a qualitative risk assessment was performed to evaluate the risk of FMD outbreaks of KNP origin occurring across the park's Western Boundary. The OIE assessment method was used based on data collected during a three month period between February and May 2007 and expert opinion. Although the data were not sufficient to allow a quantitative risk assessment to be performed, the investigation served as a useful initial approach prior to undertaking a quantitative risk assessment. Risk was assessed using the following parameters: prevalence of infection in buffalo in the KNP, permeability of the fence along its Western Boundary, the potential for contacts between livestock and buffalo. the level of immunity in cattle herds and the efficiency of surveillance measures. The magnitude of the consequences is derived from the probability of transmission and spread. The method and results are presented to serve as a basis for further discussion and for the development of a quantitative risk assessment model.

Mots-clés : fièvre aphteuse; buffle africain; afrique du sud

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