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Cosmos, a spatially explicit model to simulate the epidemiology of Cosmopolites sordidus in banana fields

Vinatier F., Tixier P., Le Page C., Duyck P.F., Lescourret F.. 2009. In : Farming Systems Design 2009. International symposium on Methodologies for Integrated Analysis of Farm Production Systems, Monterey, USA, August 23-26 2009. s.l. : s.n., 3 p.. International Symposium on Methodologies for Integrated Analysis of Farm Production Systems. 2, 2009-08-23/2009-08-26, Monterey (Etats-Unis).

Although few studies use Individual-Based Models to explain epidemiology of pests, IBMs offer interesting perspectives when the behaviour of the pest is of importance, especially in interaction with agricultural practises and environment. A stochastic individual-based model called COSMOS was developed to simulate the epidemiology of Cosmopolites sordidus in banana fields, based on simple rules of local movement of adults, egg-laying of females, development and mortality, and infestation of larvae inside the banana plants. The model was validated and an exhaustive sensitivity analysis using the Morris method was performed. The model helps us to understand how different spatial arrangement of banana plants affects epidemiology of C. sordidus. COSMOS shows that planting in patches should limit the time necessary for the pest to colonize a new field, in comparison to a regular planting, but attacks might be more severe in patches after two or three cropping cycles. By adding a submodel of pheromone trapping in COSMOS, we show that the best trapping efficiency is reached when spatial organization of traps is clustered in relation to the patchy distribution of C. sordidus. In case of invasion of a new plantation from a nearby infested plantation, it is necessary to regularly dispose the traps in line all along the neighbouring border. The best distance between each trap is correlated to the wind direction, with the largest distances for a wind direction parallel to the trap line.

Mots-clés : musa; cosmopolites sordidus

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