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Development of a mathematical model for tsetse population dynamic to optimize the control in the Niayes (Senegal)

Fall A.A., Bouyer J., Lancelot R.. 2011. In : Workshop "Towards a Multi-Scale approach for Improving Pest Management", Montpellier, October 4-5, 2011 : résumés. Montpellier : CIRAD, p. 16-16. Workshop "Towards a Multi-Scale approach for Improving Pest Management", 2011-10-04/2011-10-05, Montpellier (France).

The Niayes area in Senegal is infested by a tsetse population, which is presently targeted by a national eradication effort. The area infested is about 1000km2 but tse-tse fly distribution changes rapidly due to environmental changes, climatic condition, humidity, temperature and vegetal cover etc.. The availability of tsetse fly presence/absence data in Senegal is limited to the database survey conducted during the feasibility study (2008/2009), that?s why we decided to use a matrix model based on the tse-tse life cycle to predict the actual fly distribution in the Niayes area during the control program. The model describes biological process and the effects of the daily contribution of the temperature on the development of the pupae, the teneral and the adult flies. The model will be fitted to field demographic data to estimate parameters. The sensivity analysis and uncertainty analysis of the model will allow to predict the ecological niche of tsetse in the area and thus their temporal distribution according to climatic variations. We'll use MODIS data and field data as an input in our model to characterize the habitats suitable for tse-tse population establishment. (Texte intégral)

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