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Modeling of disease mitigation systems using loop analysis: lessons learnt from the application to three HPAI H5N1 mitigation systems in southeast Asia

Collineau L., Duboz R., Paul M., Peyre M.I., Goutard F., Holl S., Roger F.. 2014. In : Proceedings ICAHS - 2nd International Conference on Animal Health Surveillance " Surveillance against the odds", The Havana, Cuba, 7-9 May 2014. s.l. : s.n., p. 175-177. International Conference on Animal Health Surveillance. 2, 2014-05-07/2014-05-09, La Havane (Cuba).

Disease mitigation systems are complex organizations, which makes it difficult to evaluate them, especially in terms of efficiency. In this study, we suggest to consider these systems as dynamic systems to apply a qualitative modelling method called loop analysis. Based on matricial calculation, loop analysis allows for the dynamics of the system to be studied. This method is widely used in ecology but had, to our knowledge, never been applied to this context. We recently published the first study which uses loop analysis to model the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 mitigation system in Cambodia (1). The method was further applied to the HPAI H5N1 mitigation systems in Laos and Thailand. We present here the lessons learnt from the application of loop analysis to these three disease mitigation systems. Associating a cost to surveillance and intervention activities, we showed that local-level control could represent a favorable scenario for optimizing the efficiency of the HPAI H5N1 mitigation system in these three countries.

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