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A spacially explicit metapopulation model and cattle trade analysis suggests key determinants for the recurrent circulation of Rift Valley fever virus in a pilot area of Madagascar highlands

Nicolas G., Chevalier V., Tantely L.M., Fontenille D., Durand B.. 2014. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 8 (12) : 13 p..

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0003346

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a mosquito-borne zoonosis affecting domestic ruminants and humans. The RVF virus (RVFV) may be transmitted either by mosquitoes or through direct contact with body fluids or products from viremic animals. Until now Rift Valley fever (RVF) epidemiological cycle had been described in tropical, hot irrigated or arid areas. In 2008, and for the first time, human and bovine cases were detected in a temperate ecosystem in Madagascar. Based on a large and original set of field data relating to various areas of expertise-serological, virological, socio-economic, environmental and entomological data-we proposed a spatialized meta-population model integrating cattle exchange practices and virus transmission dynamic to test several scenarios that could explain the recurrent circulation of the virus in this ecosystem. This is the first model aiming at simulating RVF transmission in a temperate area and using field data.

Mots-clés : virus de la fièvre de la vallée du rift; zone tempérée; Épidémiologie; transmission des maladies; genre humain; bovin; modèle de simulation; modèle mathématique; vecteur de maladie; dynamique des populations; expérimentation; Écosystème; oryza sativa; fièvre de la vallée du rift; madagascar; Émergence

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