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Global and regionalized land uses in 2050: scenarios taking into account climate change. [P-2236-05]

De Lattre-Gasquet M., Brunelle T., Dumas P.. 2015. In : Our Common Future under Climate Change. International scientific conference Abstract Book 7-10 July 2015. Paris, France. Paris : CFCC15, p. 382-382. Our Common Future under Climate Change, 2015-07-07/2015-07-10, Paris (France).

How will future changes in land uses - within regions and on a global level – will affect food security, taking into account possible climate changes, as well as changes in cropping and livestock systems, changes in farm structures, rural and urban relations, food regimes as well as changes in the general context. The agrimonde- terra foresight project on “L and use and food (in) security” considers this question. Launched by the French research institutes Cirad and inra , the agrimonde- terra conceptual framework can be used to build land uses scenarios at national and global levels with narratives and quantitative illustrations. a t national and regional levels, the foresight process involves a group of diverse stakeholders, and discussions on the direct and indirect causes of land use changes facilitate thinking about the possible futures (anticipation), getting new ideas and understanding different points of view (appropriation) as well as decision-making (action). A first workshop has taken place in Tunisia and land use scenarios have been built. On top of that, global and regional levels scenarios are built with the support of a scenarios advisory Committee and their are the basis for discussions on possible consequences of land use changes on food security. t he scenarios have been build combining hypotheses on direct and indirect causes of land use changes, and looking at interactions and retroactions between the variables. The foresight exercice has a wholistic approach.. Climate change is one of the important indirect drivers of land use changes. It impacts the food production capacity of ecosystems in several ways. i t changes the time maturity of crops, it alters annual yields as well as their inter-annual variability, and it changes the nutritious qualities of crops. a s far as climate change is concerned, two contrasted scenarios have been taken into account, focusing on temperature change and biogeochemical cycles. t he first scenario, entitled “Stabi

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