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Could IFM REDD+ projects incentivize forest concessionaires to reduce greenhouse gases emissions in Central Africa? A lesson from the FORAFAMA project. [P-3331-01]

Claeys F., Rossi V., Bastin D., Eba'a Atyi R., Gourlet-Fleury S., Lescuyer G., Picard N., Sonwa D.J.. 2015. In : Our Common Future under Climate Change. International scientific conference Abstract Book 7-10 July 2015. Paris, France. Paris : CFCC15, p. 626-626. Our Common Future under Climate Change, 2015-07-07/2015-07-10, Paris (France).

Improved Forest Management (IFM) is an activity eligible to the mechanism of Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation and the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries (REDD+). In this context, IFM refers to activities that increase carbon stock on managed forest lands by changing forest management practices. As nearly 20 millions of hectares are now managed in the Congo Basin forests, it is a strategy of prime importance in climate policies of Central African states. However, the carbon benefit is generally based on a decrease of felling intensity that means severe income shortfalls for the logger. The extent to which carbon storage could compensate losses of timber income is a decisive factor in the feasibility of REDD+ projects. Given the few number of scientific studies on this subject, and the even fewer number of pilot projects that have been implemented, this issue is still highly in debate. To assess the potentialities for emissions reductions of IFM REDD+ projects, and to evaluate their financial feasibility, we explored a broad range of scenarios for reducing logging intensity in a typical export-oriented forest concession in Central Africa. For each scenario and for several carbon accounting approaches, we calculated timber income shortfalls and carbon benefit to estimate internal rates of return and break-even prices of carbon credits. As part of the project of "Support for the sustainable management of forests in the Congo Basin and the Brazilian AmazonBasin" (FORAFAMA), a partnership with several forest concessionaires has allowed us to incorporate forest, industrial and economic factors. Parameters uncertainties are explicitly taken into account through a Monte-Carlo method. We predicted that current voluntary markets conditions do not permit the implementation of IFM REDD+ projects in Central African concessions. Notable exceptions to this statement are

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