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Use of demographic model to assess the potential change in camel population. The example of Saudi Arabi

Alzuraiq F., Faye B., Lesnoff M.. 2015. Veterinariâ, 42 (2) : p. 312-314. 4th Conference of the International Society of Camelid Research and Development/ISOCARD 2015. 4, 2015-06-08/2015-06-12, Almaty (Kazakhstan).

The model de Leslie (matriciel model based on the monitoring of cohort) is the most model used for assessing the dynamic of population. Such model was used for assessing the population projection for the next 10 years based on the fixed in (birth and purchase) and out (mortality and culling) parameters as well as the reproduction items (fecundity, abortion rate). Different scenario based on this model can be tested and the effect of mortality rate improvement or increasing reproduction performances can be assessed on the population dynamic. Moreover, the economic values of the camel industry (selling milk and culled animals for slaughtering) can be assessed at the national level. For example by improving survival rate of 0-1y calves from 84 to 90%, the annual growth rate of the herd population will pass from 2.53 to 2.69%. Many examples are given in the presentation.

Mots-clés : camelus; chameau; dromadaire; dynamique des populations; population animale; modèle; valeur économique; analyse économique; production animale; arabie saoudite

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