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The potential distribution of Bactrocera dorsalis: considering phenology and irrigation patterns

De Villiers M., Hattingh V., Kriticos D.J., Brunel S., Vayssières J.F., Sinzogan A.A.C., Billah M., Mohamed S.A., Mwatawala M.W., Abdelgader H., Salah Faiza E.E., De Meyer M.. 2016. In : Tephritid Workers of Europe, Africa and the Middle East: 3rd International Symposium 11-14 April 2016 Stellenbosch, South Africa. Stellenbosch : TEAM, p. 30-31. International Symposium of Tephritid Workers of Europe, Africa and the Middle East (TEAM 2016). 3, 2016-04-11/2016-04-14, Stellenbosch (Afrique du Sud).

A species in the Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) complex was detected in Kenya during 2003 and classified as Bactrocera invadens Drew, Tsuruta & White. Having spread rapidly throughout Africa, it threatens agriculture due to crop damage, resulting in economic losses and loss of market access. Knowledge of its potential global distribution is therefore valuable to estimate the pest risk that it poses. In a recent revision of the B. dorsalis complex, B. invadens was incorporated into the species B. dorsalis. The potential distribution of B. dorsalis has been modelled previously. However, those models were based on presence data and did not incorporate information on the seasonal phenology of B. dorsalis, nor on the possible influence that irrigation may have on its distribution. Bucket traps, baited with methyl eugenol, were used to collect B. dorsalis over a range of climates in Africa. Seasonal phenology data, measured as fly abundance throughout the year, was related to each location's climate to infer parameters for climatic growth responses. These functions were used along with African distribution records and development studies to fit the niche model for B. dorsalis. Independent global distribution records outside Africa were used for model validation. The areas appearing at greatest risk of invasion by B. dorsalis are South and Central America, Mexico, the southernmost part of the USA, parts of the Mediterranean coast, parts of Southern and Eastern Australia and the North Island of New Zealand. Under irrigation, most of Africa and Australia appear climatically suitable. (Texte intégral)

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