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Interactions of mean climate change and climate variability on food security extremes. [P-2223-18]

Ruane A.C., McDermid S.P., Mavromatis T., Hudson N.I., Morales M.D., Simmons J., Agalawatte P., Ahmad A., Ahmad S., Ahuja L., Anapalli S.S., Anothai J., Asseng S., Bellocchi G., Dumont B., Bert F., Bertuzzi P., Bhatia V.S., Bindi M., Biggs J., Broad I., Byun-Wu L., Cammarano D., Carretero R., Chung U., De Sanctis G., Debats S., Dhliwayo T., Estes L., Ewert F., Feng L., Ferrise R., Gaiser T., Garcia G., Gastal F., Gbegbelegbe S., Geethalakshmi V., Gérardeaux E., Goldberg R., Grant B., Guevara E., Hickman J., Hoffmann H., Huang H., Hussain J., Justino F.B., Karunaratne A.S., Klumpp K., Koehler A.K., Kouakou P.K.. 2015. In : Our Common Future under Climate Change. International scientific conference Abstract Book 7-10 July 2015. Paris, France. Paris : CFCC15, p. 321-322. Our Common Future under Climate Change, 2015-07-07/2015-07-10, Paris (France).

The Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP) has conducted a common set of sensitivity tests on more than 1100 simulation sets representing different farm systems in more than 50 countries, with carbon dioxide, temperature, and precipitation change sensitivities gauged for ~20 crop species and ~20 crop models. Here we present an analysis of C3MP results indicating how mean climate changes are likely to affect variability and extreme events within future time periods. Recognizing that climate change will affect agricultural systems both through mean changes and through shifts in climate variability and associated extreme events, C3MP can elucidate several aspects of these changes. First, mean climate changes can affect yields across an entire time period. Second, extreme events (when they do occur) may be more sensitive to climate changes than a year with normal climate. Third, mean climate changes can alter the likelihood of climate extremes exceeding critical biophysical thresholds, leading to more food security extremes. Finally, shifts in climate variability can result in an increase or reduction of mean yield, as extreme climate events tend to have lower yield than years with normal climate.This presentation will demonstrate each of these effects and illustrate the potential implications for future food production and associated agricultural economies under climate change.

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