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Report of the workshop "Foresight scenarios for the dairy sector in Indonesia : Past experiences and future challenges to design sustainable policies and strategies"

Duteurtre G., Sembada P., Nguyen M.H.. 2018. Bogor : Institut Pertanian Bogor; CIRAD, 32 p..

The workshop on ¿Foresight scenarios for the dairy sector in Indonesia¿ took place at the IPB International Conference Center in Bogor on 4 December, 2018. It was organized by IPB and CIRAD with a support from the French Embassy. The specific objective of the workshop was to review the strategic vision and plan of the dairy sector in Indonesia and to initiate a foresight participatory exercise. The workshop gathered around 40 participants, including members of public agencies, staff of private firms (Danone group, Fonterra, Cimory), managers of cooperatives (KPSBU, KPS Bogor), farmers, lecturers, researchers and journalists. The workshop agenda covered: (i) a review of the ¿Blue Print¿ vision for the dairy sector to 2025; (ii) an update of the dairy development strategy of the ministry of Agriculture; (iii) a foresight exercise on the dairy sector conducted in 2016 in Vietnam, which brought an interesting comparison perspective and illustrated the foresight approach; and (iv) some research results on the sustainable development of dairy farms in Indonesia. The afternoon session was devoted to a participatory exercise that led to the proposition of three contrasted scenarios for the dairy sector. The first scenario which is named ¿Industrial integrated dairy envisions the emergence of an industrial value chain with medium-scale and large farms integrated with processing industries. This scenario would give high economic returns, but it would exclude most of the local smallholder farmers, and would lead to the collapse of the dairy cooperatives. It would also bring environmental challenges to local communities. The 2nd scenario titled ¿community-based dairy sector¿ relies on the development of dairy zones that would support both community development and national milk production. Those dairy zones would be strongly supported by private firms and by dairy cooperatives that would unify to create one major dairy processor, as it is the case in some European countries. Those 2 first scenarios would be supported by strong policies to promote milk consumption at home, at school, and in the whole society. The 3rd scenario refers to the ¿development of vegetable drinks¿. Contrarily to the other scenarios, it foresees the decrease of milk consumption and the collapse of the whole dairy sector. In the future, a modelling exercise could help to assess the expected impact of those 3 scenarios with quantitative indicators.

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