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Climate change impacts on maize production in the cerrado of Brazil

Macena Da Silva F.A., Affholder F., Corbeels M.. 2015. In : Actes du Xe séminaire des utilisateurs et concepteurs du modèle STICS. Rennes : INRA, p. 25-26. Séminaire des Utilisateurs et Concepteurs du Modèle STICS. 10, 2015-03-24/2015-03-26, Rennes.

About 70% of Brazil's farm output is produced in the Cerrado region. The main crops grown are maize, soybean, sugarcane and cotton. The climate is sub-humid tropical, typical of the rather moister savanna regions of the world. Climate model predictions (Torres and Marengo, 2013) suggest that the Cerrado will experience a temperature increase of between 2 °C and 4 °C by the end of the century. Model projections for future rainfall under high emission scenarios indicate a decrease of 20% to 40% of current values. Changes in the distribution of rainfall throughout the year are also expected. These climate changes may have a severe impact on the agricultural sector. There is an urgent need to quantify more securely the risks and uncertainties involved in the effects of climate change on crop production. The objective of this study is to assess the impact of climate change on maize yields in the Cerrado.

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