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A pilot study to delimit tsetse target populations in Zimbabwe

Chikowore G., Dicko A.H., Chinwada P., Zimba M., Shereni W., Roger F., Bouyer J., Guerrini L.. 2018. In : Kirk-Spriggs Ashley H.(ed.), Muller Burgert S.(ed.). 9th International Congress of Dipterology abstracts volume. Windhoek : International Congresses of Dipterology, p. 50-50. International Congress of Dipterology (ICD9). 9, 2018-11-25/2018-11-30, Windhoek (Namibie).

Tsetse (Glossinidae) are cyclical vectors of human and animal trypanosomoses currently targeted by the African Union, under the Pan African Tsetse and Try-panosomiasis Eradication Campaign (PATTEC). Elaborate plans to guide inter-vention are a requirement if effective control of tsetse is to be achieved. A model to aid the planning of intervention programmes and assist a fuller understanding of tsetse distribution was applied in a pilot study covering 400 km2 in Masoka, Zimbabwe and targeted two savanna species, Glossina morsitans morsitans Westwood and Glossina pallidipes Austen. Current data were used to study habitat suitability of both species, based on climatic and environmental data derived from MODIS and SPOT 5 satellite images. Factors infl uencing distribu-tion were explored, using an Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA), whilst habitat suitability was predicted using a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model at a spatial resolution of 250 m. Area Under the Curve (AUC), an indicator of model performance, was 0.89 for G. m. morsitans and 0.96 for G. pallidipes. The prob-ability that fl ies were really absent from grid cells where they were not captured during the study was then calculated, based on a probability model using a risk threshold of 0.05. Apart from grid cells where G. m. morsitans and G. pallidipes were captured in the study area, there was a high probability of presence in ad-ditional grid cells adding up to 128 km2 and 144 km2 respectively. The modelling process promised to be useful in optimising the outputs of presence/absence surveys, allowing the defi nition of tsetse infested areas with improved accuracy.

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