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Modelling biodiversity scenarios in madagascar under both the effects of climate change and anthropogenic deforestation

Vieilledent G., Muniz-Tagliari M., Charra M., Grinand C., Allnutt T.F., Razafimpahanana D., Pedrono M., Rakotoarijaona J.R.. 2015. In : Visconti P. (ed.), Game E. (ed.), Mathevet R. (ed.), Wilkerson M. (ed.). Proceedings of the 27th International Congress for Conservation Biology and 4th European Congress for Conservation Biology " Mission biodiversity: choosing new paths for conservation". Washington DC : Society for conservation biology, p. 732-732. International Congress for Conservation Biology. 27, 2015-08-02/2015-08-06, Montpellier (France).

Madagascar is widely known for its exceptional biodiversity which is, for the terrestrial part, mainly concentrated in tropical forests. This biodiversity is severely threatened by both climate change and deforestation. The FRB (Fondation pour la Recherche sur la Biodiversité) project named BioSceneMada ( aims at modelling the biodiversity scenarios in Madagascar under both the effects of climate change and anthropogenic deforestation. In this study we present the first results of the project. We used presence data for more than 5000 species and bioclimatic envelope models to forecast species distribution under the effects of climate change. Species distribution maps were used to identify potential refugia for biodiversity. Combining these results to the projections of a deforestation model, we also identified the potential biodiversity hotspots under a high risk of deforestation. Project results should help define efficient strategies for conserving Madagascan biodiversity. In particular, we promote the inclusion of top priority areas for biodiversity conservation into the current Madagascar protected areas system.

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