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ExpeRoya, a comprehensive model to forecast the risk of coffee leaf rust on Coffea arabica in Central America

Motisi N., Bommel P., Leclerc G., Merle I., Avelino J.. 2021. In : 28th Conference of Association for the Science and Information on Coffee - Books of abstracts. Montpellier : ASIC, p. 41. Conference of Association for the Science and Information on Coffee (ASIC 2021). 28, 2021-06-28/2021-07-01, Montpellier (France).

RATIONALE - To anticipate socio-economic crises linked to epidemics of coffee leaf rust (CLR), we developed a biophysical model to forecast the risk of increase of CLR at the territorial and plot scales. METHODS - This model was built using the IPSIM (In jury Profile SIMulator) methodology, which has the advantage of representing in a simplified way the complex relationships that exist within agro-ecosystems and allows easy appropriation of the tool by the actors of the sector. ExpeRoya combines ordinal qualitative variables that describe the interactions between weather, pathosystem and crop management that affect CLR risk of increase each month. RESULTS - Firstly, this model was socially evaluated in national workshops in Central America and Dominican Republic and through a survey with international rust experts. Secondly, it was numerically evaluated on CLR monitoring data. As the model fitted well the data it is currently used to produce monthly alerts in Honduras and Dominican Republic through "Pergamino", an online platf orm. CONCLUSIONS and PERSPECTIVES - ExpeRoya is a new promising tool to be used in association with a socio-economic model to form a risk management system of coffee crop.

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