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Epidemiological assessment of Wolbachia-based biocontrol for reduction of dengue morbidity

Vasilieva O., Escobar O., Martinez H., Bliman P.A., Dumont Y.. 2022. Richmond : Virginia Commonwealth University, 3 p.. Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference, 2022-05-18/2022-05-20, Richmond (Etats-Unis).

Wolbachia-based biological control has recently emerged as an ecologically friendly and potentially cost-effective method for prevention and control of dengue and other arboviral infections. When deliberately infected withWolbachia, major vector species, such as Aedes aegypti females, lose their vectorial competence and become less capable of transmitting the virus to humans. Thus, Wolbachia-based biocontrol aims to replace wild vectors (fully capa- ble of transmitting arboviral infections) by Wolbachia-carrying insects that bear a reduced transmission capacity. The population replacement can be achieved by releasing mosquitoes that were transinfected with Wolbachia during the process of mass-rearing. In this presentation, we propose a sex-structured model describing the dynamics of two sup-populations of adult mosquitoes: the wild insects (males and females that are Wolbachia- free), and those deliberately infected with Wolbachia. This model is biologically viable, well-posed, and reflects the two significant features of Wolbachia: maternal transmission and cytoplasmic incompatibility. The model also exhibits bistability that agrees with the principle of competitive exclusion. Using this mosquito population dynamics model, we further construct a dengue transmis- sion system of SEIR-SEI type to perform an epidemiological assessment of Wolbachia-based control for prevention of dengue morbidity. As an example, we simulate this type of preven- tive control applied to Cali, a sizeable Colombian city commonly considered a hyperendemic area regarding dengue morbidity.

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