Highly speculative and very sensitive to rumours, the international vanilla market is in no way standard. Prices can vary from 1 to 10 over a period of a few months with market releases stable at 2 300 tonnes. Nearly three-quarters of the world export potential is held by Madagascar. The very attractive prices of recent years are encouraging certain countries to invest in the sector. This medium-term increase in supply could reverse the situation in a market that, given the prices, is already moving away from natural vanilla and becoming increasingly interested in substitutes. A decrease in demand and an increase in supply make an explosive cocktail. But when is it going to go bang?