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Cirad

Application of a dynamic linear programming model on an ex post impact assessment analysis. The case of spineless cactus in alley cropping in Central Tunisia

Alary V., Nefzaoui A., Elloumi M., Mekki Ben Jemaa M.. 2004. In : David Parsons ; Lluis M. Plà Aragones ; Rudi de Mol ; Anders Ringgaard Kristensen. EWDA-04 European Workshop for Decision Problems in Agriculture and Natural Resources, Silsoe, 27-28 September 2004. Silsoe : Silsoe Research Institute, 11 p.. EWDA 04, 2004-09-27/2004-09-28, Silsoe (Royaume-Uni).

Traditional ex post impact assessment methods such as benefit cost analysis or productions functions use cannot take into account the complexity of change in natural resource management processes that are dynamic and interactive. This paper proposes to use a bio-economic model based on linear programming to valuate the ex post impacts of NRM researches. This model is used to valuate the impacts of spine less cactus -alley cropping system in the arid and semi arid area of Maghreb. The case study is the Zoghmar community in the Central Tunisia, the area covered by the Mashreq/maghreb Project, the Femise project and the SPIA Project (ICARDA projects). This community is located in dry lands characterized with less than 350 mm rainfall and periodic droughts. Agro-pastoral systems are dominant production systems, and people derive their incomes from both livestock and crop production. The main results imply that the implemented technology has basically benefited to small farmers with a ewe capital inferior to 30 heads.

Mots-clés : modèle dynamique; analyse économique; culture en bande; zone aride; tunisie

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