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Agricultural trade liberalization in a world of uncertainty : discussion of the results of a world CGE model

Boussard J.M., Gérard F., Piketty M.G., Christensen A.K., Voituriez T.. 2003. In : International Conference on Policy Modeling, July 3-5, 2003, Istanbul, Turkey. s.l. : s.n.. ECOMOD 2003 : International Conference On Policy Modeling, 2003-07-03/2003-07-05, Istanbul (Turquie).

In this paper, we try to evaluate the change in welfare gains due to trade liberalization when imperfect information is considered. The results of two versions of a CGE model, using GTAP database and representing goods as well as capital flows, are compared. In the first one, a standard world CGE approach is followed. In the second version we included risk aversion, imperfect information and production lag in the agricultural sector. After a brief description of the two versions, changes in welfare, represented by the income of two types of household (middle-low and middle-high) in three regions (Europe, United States, Rest of the World) after agricultural trade liberalisation are presented. Theoretical and political consequences of the results are discussed.

Mots-clés : pauvreté; libéralisation des échanges; analyse économique; situation économique; modèle; commerce international; marché des produits de base; revenu; politique agricole; information sur le marché; application des ordinateurs; traitement des données; modèle d'équilibre général; modélisation mathématique

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