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Qualitative risk assessment of the introduction of H5N1 virus in Ethiopia by the commercial trades

Olive M.M., Goutard F., Demissie A., Yigezu L.M., Jobre Y., Roger F.. 2007. In : Camus Emmanuel (ed.), Cardinale Eric (ed.), Dalibard Christophe (ed.), Martinez Dominique (ed.), Renard Jean-François (ed.), Roger François (ed.). Does control of animal infectious risks offer a new international perspective ? : proceedings of the 12th International Conference of the Association of Institutions of Tropical Veterinary Medicine, Montpellier, France, 20-22 August 2007. Montpellier : CIRAD, p. 35-40. International Conference of the Association of Institutions of Tropical Veterinary Medicine. 12, 2007-08-20/2007-08-22, Montpellier (France).

Recent outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 in Sudan, Djibouti and Egypt, have placed Ethiopia at risk of experiencing an outbreak. In May 2006, a qualitative risk assessment was carried out in order to evaluate the risk of introduction and dissemination of the H5N1 virus thought trade in Ethiopia. Data were collected via field mission and interview of experts. Risk assessment process was split in three steps: release, exposure and consequence assessment. The release assessment estimates the likelihood of the virus to be introduced by importation of day-old chick: two export countries Egypt and United Kingdom have confirmed H5N1 infection in poultry farms so the probability of introduction through legal importation from these countries was estimated. Although Sudan and Djibouti experienced outbreaks of H5N1, the probability of introduction by trade across borders was evaluated. The exposure assessment identifies possible pathways leading to exposure of poultry: live birds markets, backyard production, multiplication centre and commercial farms. Consequence assessment estimates the spread of virus, the mortality, the economic effects on markets and the food safety impact. Risk estimation is assessed as null to negligible but it appears clearly that backyard production constitutes the more important risk.

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