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COSMOS, a spatially explicit model to simulate the epidemiology of Cosmopolites sordidus in banana fields

Vinatier F., Tixier P., Le Page C., Duyck P.F., Lescourret F.. 2009. Ecological Modelling, 220 (18) : p. 2244-2254.

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.06.023

A stochastic individual-based model called COSMOS was developed to simulate the epidemiology of banana weevil Cosmopolites sordidus, a major pest of banana fields. The model is based on simple rules of local movement of adults, egg laying of females, development and mortality, and infestation of larvae inside the banana plants. The biological parameters were estimated from the literature, and the model was validated at the small-plot scale. Simulated and observed distributions of attackswere similar except for five plots out of 18, using a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. These exceptions may be explained by variation in predation of eggs and measurement error. An exhaustive sensitivity analysis using the Morris method showed that predation rate of eggs, demographic parameters of adults and mortality rate of larvae were the most influential parameters. COSMOS was therefore used to test different spatial arrangements of banana plants on the epidemiology of C. sordidus. Planting bananas in groups increased the time required to colonise plots but also the percentage of banana plants with severe attacks. Spatial heterogeneity of banana stages had no effect on time required to colonise plots but increased the mean level of attacks. Our model helps explain key factors of population dynamics and the epidemiology of this tropical pest.

Mots-clés : cosmopolites sordidus; musa; modèle mathématique; modèle de simulation; Épidémiologie; dynamique des populations; infestation; technique de prévision; antilles françaises; france

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