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A method for estimating the distribution of species susceptible to foot-and-mouth disease in the Kruger National Park Region

Brahmbhatt D.P., Fosgate G.T., Gummow B., Ward M.P., Vosloo V., Jori F., Budke C.M., Srinivasan R., Highfield L.. 2007. In : 7th Annual Conference of the Southern African Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Cape Town, 22-24 August 2007. s.l. : s.n., p. 101-108. Annual Conference of the Southern African Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine. 7, 2007-08-22/2007-08-24, Cape Town (Afrique du Sud).

Landscape distribution of susceptible species is needed to model the spatial spread of infectious diseases. Our objective is to develop 2 individual species animal count maps - for African buffalo and domestic cattle susceptible to foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in the Kruger National Park Region (KNPR) of the Republic of South Africa (RSA) - using retrospective census and land use data. The KNPR includes the Kruger National Park, Limpopo and Mpumalanga provinces. We applied dasymetric mapping methods to disaggregate animal population census data to a finer resolution using ancillary data. In this study, ancillary data used to define species distributions included stocking rate or carrying capacity and land suitability parameters, A geographical information system (GIS) was used to identify suitable land and vegetation locations (x,y coordinates) for each species. Covariate-specific animal counts were modelled using a Poisson distribution. The resulting animal count data was mapped and will be used to model FMD spread within the KNPR.

Mots-clés : fièvre aphteuse; buffle africain; bovidae; afrique du sud; connochaetes taurinus

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