Rural development in the Sudano-Sahelian region during the past 20 years and future scenarios of change were studied using meta-analysis of case studies, household interviews and scenario assessment. Households have generally increased their wealth, especially when they diversify out of agriculture. Rain-fed crop cultivation is more sensitive to climate factors than livestock, but generally climate factors play a limited direct role for local land use and livelihood strategies. The agricultural sector needs strong support to remain important in the region and off-farm work and migration are likely to continue to increase, which may decrease vulnerability.