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Tentative prediction of cocoa yield (Theobroma cocoa L.) in farmer's field in Cameroon

Amang a Mbang J., Mounjouenpou P., Babin R., Cilas C., Tchouamo I., Dibog L., Nyassé S.. 2011. Journal of Natural Product and Plant Resources, 1 (3) : p. 43-49.

The study aims to identify the explanatory factors of the commercial cocoa yield farmer's fields in 9 villages located in 4 agro-ecological zones of Cameroon. The method of analysis statistical of segmentation CART was used to explain the variables of the output according to all the explanatory variables available. The test was carried out starting from the data of two years diagnosis, in 36 farmer's plots where the observations related to 30 cocoa trees, that is a total of 1080 trees. The genetic Type, the vigour off the tree (section), flowering (flowers cushion), the bios attackers (stings pods rate and rotted pods rate) and the climate factors (the monthly average temperature and monthly rainfall) were the parameters measured to try to explain the variables of production (the number and the weight of harvested cocoa pods). The results obtained show that the hybrid genetic type have rate of trees in farmer's field is more than 33%, predicted 250% increase production in pods number and weight. Moreover, it was observed that the rate of stings and rotted pods was reduced by 2% when the temperature lied between 24 and 27°C and the mean annual rainfall equal gold less than 1775mm. Moreover the rate of things pods fruits was reduced by 2/3 (two thirds) the number of flowering when this one is lower than 2066. The rate rotted pods was reduced by 40% when the section of the cacao-trees is higher than 138 mm ².

Mots-clés : theobroma cacao; rendement des cultures; cameroun

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