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A chaotic model for the epidemic of Ebola virus disease in West Africa (2013¿2016)

Mangiarotti S., Peyre M.I., Huc M.. 2016. Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 26 (11) : e113112 (16 p.).

An epidemic of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) broke out in Guinea in December 2013. It was only identified in March 2014 while it had already spread out in Liberia and Sierra Leone. The spill over of the disease became uncontrollable and the epidemic could not be stopped before 2016. The time evolution of this epidemic is revisited here with the global modeling technique which was designed to obtain the deterministic models from single time series. A generalized formulation of this technique for multivariate time series is introduced. It is applied to the epidemic of EVD in West Africa focusing on the period between March 2014 and January 2015, that is, before any detected signs of weakening. Data gathered by the World Health Organization, based on the official publications of the Ministries of Health of the three main countries involved in this epidemic, are considered in our analysis. Two observed time series are used: the daily numbers of infections and deaths. A four-dimensional model producing a very complex dynamical behavior is obtained. The model is tested in order to investigate its skills and drawbacks. Our global analysis clearly helps to distinguish three main stages during the epidemic. A characterization of the obtained attractor is also performed. In particular, the topology of the chaotic attractor is analyzed and a skeleton is obtained for its structure. (Résumé d'auteur)

Mots-clés : afrique occidentale; guinée

Thématique : Maladies des animaux

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