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Food and electricity self-sufficiency trade-offs in Reunion Island: Modelling land-use change scenarios with stakeholders

Russeil V., Lo Seen D., Broust F., Bonin M., Praene J.P.. 2023. Land Use Policy, 132 : 13 p..

DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2023.106784

Reunion Island, a French overseas region in the Indian Ocean, has endorsed policies targeting food and electricity self-sufficiency. This objective implies balancing different land-uses (food, feed, bioelectricity, urbanisation, etc.) which we explore in a set of scenarios towards 2035. Through participatory structural analysis, we modelled drivers of change as processes using Ocelet, a spatially explicit and dynamic modelling platform. We built a detailed land-use map for our initial state and calibrated relevant processes through four scenarios ranging from “business-as-usual” to “implementation of ambitious territory planning policies”. To improve local self-sufficiency, our results support the need for large-scale land planning policies, suggesting partial sugarcane conversion into food crops, urbanisation control, farmlands expansion onto fallows and photovoltaic increase. Our context-specific approach addresses food and electricity self-sufficiency as a whole and understands its inner dynamic and spatial processes from stakeholders' viewpoint. Moreover, our model recognizes small-scale spatial heterogeneity and contributes to mediate controversial issues related to territory foresight and land-use planning.

Mots-clés : approche participative; aménagement du territoire; autosuffisance; forêt tropicale humide; bioélectricité; diversification; cartographie de l'utilisation des terres; modèle de simulation; politique alimentaire; dynamique des populations; électricité; utilisation des terres; cartographie des fonctions de la forêt; france; la réunion

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