This article analyzes the recent surge in market prices of raw materials, as the result of a feverish episode, characteristic of these markets when they are not regulated. Are these fluctuations exogenous or endogenous? Significant for understanding the system or not critical? Most models assume that they are negligible and requirements arising from this are those of a minimal state intervention in economic life and "faith in free markets" as policy development. However, we must acknowledge the limited progress achieved in recent decades, in the situation of low-income countries, particularly in Africa. The requirements from the dominant models in economics have been ineffective, leading to reflect on their ability to describe the process and to focus on opportunities for improvement. The model ID3 CIRAD is an attempt in that direction.