A GIS-based multi-criteria evaluation approach to map Rift Valley fever risk areas in Europe
Tran A., Ippoliti C., Gély M., Balenghien T., Conte A.A., Baldet T., Goffredo M., Calistri P., Chevalier V.. 2012. In : E-sove 2012 : from biology to integrated control in a changing world. Abstract book. Montpellier : European Society for Vector Ecology, p. 67-67. Conférence E-SOVE. 18, 2012-10-08/2012-10-11, Montpellier (France).
Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a severe mosquito-borne disease affecting domestic ruminants and humans, caused by a Phlebovirus (Bunyaviridae). RVF virus (RVFV) infection may result either from mosquito bites or contact with a viremic animal, or exposure to body fluids. Recently its distribution enlarged, threatening northern Africa, a large outbreak occurred in northern Mauritania in 2010, Middle East and Europe. Even if the probability of introduction and large-scale spread of RVFV in Europe is very low, localized RVF outbreaks may occur in areas where population of ruminants and potential vectors are present. The goal of this study was to identify European suitable areas for RVF transmission. We focused on the risk of transmission of RVFV to three main European potential hosts, i.e. cattle, sheep and goats, considering only the vectorial transmission. Very few is known about European mosquito competency. Based on a literature review, five mosquito species belonging to Culex and Aedes genera, present in Europe and likely to play a role in RVFV transmission in case of virus introduction were identified: Culex (Culex) pipiens, Culex (Culex) theileri, Aedes (Aedimorphus) vexans vexans, Aedes (Ochlerotatus) caspius and Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus. We first modelled the geographic distribution of each of these five species, based on expert knowledge and using land cover (Corine Land cover database) and elevation as proxy of mosquito presence. Then, the risk of RVFV transmission was modelled using a Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) approach, integrating available experimental data on vector competence, expert knowledge on abundance, host density data and literature knowledge on host sensitivity. A sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the robustness of the results with respect to expert choices in the selection, weights assignments and combination of the different factors. The resulting maps include i) five maps of vector distribution, one for each potential vector s
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Agents Cirad, auteurs de cette publication :
- Baldet Thierry — Bios / UMR ASTRE
- Balenghien Thomas — Bios / UMR ASTRE
- Chevalier Véronique — Bios / UMR ASTRE
- Tran Annelise — Es / UMR TETIS