Publications des agents du Cirad

Cirad

Defining national biogenic methane targets: Implications for national food production & climate neutrality objectives

Prudhomme R., O'Donoghue V., Ryan M., Styles D.. 2021. Journal of Environmental Management, 295 : 14 p..

DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113058

Methane is a short-lived greenhouse gas (GHG) modelled distinctly from long-lived GHGs such as carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide to establish global emission budgets for climate stabilisation. The Paris Agreement requires a 24–47% reduction in global biogenic methane emissions by 2050. Separate treatment of methane in national climate policies will necessitate consideration of how global emission budgets compatible with climate stabilisation can be downscaled to national targets, but implications of different downscaling rules for national food production and climate neutrality objectives are poorly understood. This study addresses that knowledge gap by examining four methods to determine national methane quotas, and two methods of GHG aggregation (GWP100 and GWP*) across four countries with contrasting agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sectors and socio-economic contexts (Brazil, France, India and Ireland). Implications for production of methane-intensive food (milk, meat, eggs and rice) in 2050 and national AFOLU climate neutrality targets are explored. It is assumed that methane quotas are always filled by food production where sufficient land is available. Global methane budgets for 1.5 °C scenarios are downscaled to national quotas based on: grand-parenting (equal percentage reductions across countries); equity (equal per capita emissions); ability (emission reductions proportionate to GDP); animal protein security (emissions proportionate to animal protein production in 2010). The choice of allocation method changes national methane quotas by a factor of between 1.7 (India) and 6.7 (Ireland). Despite projected reductions in emission-intensities, livestock production would need to decrease across all countries except India to comply with quotas under all but the most optimistic sustainable intensification scenarios. The extent of potential afforestation on land spared from livestock production is decisive in achieving climate neutrality. Brazil an

Mots-clés : politique de l'environnement; atténuation des effets du changement climatique; méthane; gaz à effet de serre; réduction des émissions; production alimentaire; brésil; france; inde; irlande; politique climatique

Documents associés

Article (a-revue à facteur d'impact)

Agents Cirad, auteurs de cette publication :