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How can winegrowers adapt to climate change? A participatory modeling approach in southern France

Naulleau A., Gary C., Prévot L., Vinatier F., Hossard L.. 2022. Agricultural Systems, 203 : 15 p..

DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2022.103514

Context: Climate change threatens wine growing systems in varying ways because of their high diversity, even at a local scale. This diversity needs to be considered when designing and assessing adaptation strategies to coordinate better with these diverse local conditions. Objective: We developed a participatory modeling approach to (1) design adaptation strategies in a viticultural watershed in southern France, (2) numerically and spatially evaluate their effects under future climatic conditions, and (3) discuss the results with stakeholders. Methods: We organized two sets of collective workshops, before and after a simulation phase. During the workshops, we designed four adaptation strategies that correspond to different ways to combine adaptation measures proposed by stakeholders. A spatially explicit model was used to evaluate the effects of six adaptation measures (late varieties, irrigation, reducing canopy size, adjusting cover cropping, reducing density, and shading) at field scale and combinations of them at watershed scale. Simulations were realized under a high-emissions climate change scenario RCP 8.5. Model-based evaluations were followed by discussions with stakeholders. The cost-effectiveness of adaptation strategies was estimated at farm scale using an indicator designed by the stakeholders. Results and conclusions: The spatial combination of adaptation measures in a viticultural watershed provided options for adapting wine growing systems to climate change. A delayed harvest strategy with currently available late varieties provided only minimal relief from high temperature during ripening. A water stress limitation strategy would compensate for production losses if disruptive adaptations (e.g., reduced density) were adopted and if more vineyards were irrigated. A relocation strategy would encourage premium wine production in the constrained mountainous areas, where grapevines systems are historically adapted to limited water conditions. A soil impro

Mots-clés : adaptation aux changements climatiques; viticulture; stratégie pour faire face à une crise; changement climatique; conservation de l'eau; modélisation; système de culture; approche participative; bassin versant; france; languedoc-roussillon

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