Simulating Ips typographus L. outbreak dynamics and their influence on carbon balance estimates with ORCHIDEE r8627
Marie G., Jeong J., Jactel H., Petter G., Cailleret M., McGrath M.J., Bastrikov V., Ghattas J., Guenet B., Lansø A.S., Naudts K., Valade A., Yue C., Luyssaert S.. 2024. GeoScientific Model Development, 17 (21) : p. 8023-8047.
New (a)biotic conditions resulting from climate change are expected to change disturbance dynamics, such as windthrow, forest fires, droughts, and insect outbreaks, and their interactions. These unprecedented natural disturbance dynamics might alter the capability of forest ecosystems to buffer atmospheric CO2 increases, potentially leading forests to transform from sinks into sources of CO2. This study aims to enhance the ORCHIDEE land surface model to study the impacts of climate change on the dynamics of the bark beetle, Ips typographus, and subsequent effects on forest functioning. The Ips typographus outbreak model is inspired by previous work from Temperli et al. (2013) for the LandClim landscape model. The new implementation of this model in ORCHIDEE r8627 accounts for key differences between ORCHIDEE and LandClim: (1) the coarser spatial resolution of ORCHIDEE; (2) the higher temporal resolution of ORCHIDEE; and (3) the pre-existing process representation of windthrow, drought, and forest structure in ORCHIDEE. Simulation experiments demonstrated the capability of ORCHIDEE to simulate a variety of post-disturbance forest dynamics observed in empirical studies. Through an array of simulation experiments across various climatic conditions and windthrow intensities, the model was tested for its sensitivity to climate, initial disturbance, and selected parameter values. The results of these tests indicated that with a single set of parameters, ORCHIDEE outputs spanned the range of observed dynamics. Additional tests highlighted the substantial impact of incorporating Ips typographus outbreaks on carbon dynamics. Notably, the study revealed that modeling abrupt mortality events as opposed to a continuous mortality framework provides new insights into the short-term carbon sequestration potential of forests under disturbance regimes by showing that the continuous mortality framework tends to overestimate the carbon sink capacity of forests in the 20- to 50-year ra
Mots-clés : ips typographus; séquestration du carbone; modèle de simulation; changement climatique; modélisation; dynamique des populations; sécheresse; cycle du carbone; perturbation de l'écosystème; surveillance épidémiologique
Documents associés
Article (a-revue à facteur d'impact)
Agents Cirad, auteurs de cette publication :
- Valade Aude — Persyst / UMR Eco&Sols
