Assessing changes in global fire regimes
Sayedi S.S., Abbott B.W., Vannière B., Leys B., Colombaroli D., Gil Romera G., Aleman J., Blarquez O., Feurdean A., Brown K., Aakala T., Alenius T., Allen K., Andric M., Bergeron Y., Biagioni S., Bradshaw R., Bremond L., Brisset E., Brooks J., Brugger S.O., Brussel T., Cadd H., Cagliero E., Carcaillet C., Carter V., Catry F.X., Champreux A., Chaste E., et al.. 2024. Fire Ecology, 20 : 22 p..
Background: The global human footprint has fundamentally altered wildfire regimes, creating serious consequences for human health, biodiversity, and climate. However, it remains difficult to project how long-term interactions among land use, management, and climate change will affect fire behavior, representing a key knowledge gap for sustainable management. We used expert assessment to combine opinions about past and future fire regimes from 99 wildfire researchers. We asked for quantitative and qualitative assessments of the frequency, type, and implications of fire regime change from the beginning of the Holocene through the year 2300. Results: Respondents indicated some direct human influence on wildfire since at least¿~¿12,000 years BP, though natural climate variability remained the dominant driver of fire regime change until around 5,000 years BP, for most study regions. Responses suggested a ten-fold increase in the frequency of fire regime change during the last 250 years compared with the rest of the Holocene, corresponding first with the intensification and extensification of land use and later with anthropogenic climate change. Looking to the future, fire regimes were predicted to intensify, with increases in frequency, severity, and size in all biomes except grassland ecosystems. Fire regimes showed different climate sensitivities across biomes, but the likelihood of fire regime change increased with higher warming scenarios for all biomes. Biodiversity, carbon storage, and other ecosystem services were predicted to decrease for most biomes under higher emission scenarios. We present recommendations for adaptation and mitigation under emerging fire regimes, while recognizing that management options are constrained under higher emission scenarios. Conclusion: The influence of humans on wildfire regimes has increased over the last two centuries. The perspective gained from past fires should be considered in land and fire management strategies, but novel f
Mots-clés : changement climatique; biodiversité; services écosystémiques; utilisation des terres; incendie spontané; régime des incendies; séquestration du carbone; incendie; adaptation aux changements climatiques; réduction des émissions; atténuation des effets du changement climatique
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Agents Cirad, auteurs de cette publication :
- Chaste Emeline — Persyst / UMR Eco&Sols
