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A forecasting model for desert locust presence during recession period, using real-time satellite imagery

Marescot L., Fernandez É., Dridi H., Benahi A.S., Hamouny M.L., Maeno K.O., Escorihuela M.J., Paolini G., Piou C.. 2025. Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment, 37 : 17 p..

DOI: 10.18167/DVN1/4IY2TG

DOI: 10.1016/j.rsase.2025.101497

Desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria) is a major agricultural pest that poses significant socio-economic challenges to food security. This study aims to enhance preventive management of desert locusts in Western and Northern Africa by improving an operational model developed by Piou et al. (2019). The model employs satellite remote sensing data and machine learning to forecast locust occurrence at a 1 km2 resolution every ten days. Objectives include identifying environmental risk factors, training random forest models with high-predictive power and providing updated forecasts via a web interface. It is the first implementation of a statistical forecasting model for this species within an automated system, delivering updated locust presence probabilities every ten days. Validated through field surveys with a positive error rate of 23%, the forecasting tool shows a strong correlation between predicted probabilities and observed locust densities. This operational tool can guide survey teams, optimize resource allocation, and mitigate environmental impacts efficiently. We believe continuous evaluation and integration of the forecast system will enhance its effectiveness in preventing locust outbreaks, thereby safeguarding food security in the region.

Mots-clés : télédétection; schistocerca gregaria; imagerie par satellite; modélisation environnementale; mauritanie; sénégal

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