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Monochain HSMM

Durand J.B., Franc A., Peyrard N., Vergne N., Votsi I.. 2025. In : Peyrard Nathalie (ed.), De Saporta Benoîte (ed.). A comprehensive guide to HSMM: Theory, software, and advanced extensions. Londres : ISTE; John Wiley, p. 1-46. (Mathematics and Statistics Series / ISTE).

DOI: 10.1002/9781394427581.ch1

This chapter presents general HSMM formalism and well-known particular cases. It starts with a gentle introduction to illustrate the main notions and notations for a toy example. The chapter then introduces the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) for HSMM, the likelihood expression and evaluation, asymptotic properties of MLE and expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for MLE computation. It presents recent results on two topics seldom addressed for HSMMs: the definition of reliability indicators and introduction of mixed effects into HSMM components, with the latter presenting a thorough survey of the literature. Some works considered real-valued hidden states or continuous time. When the underlying chain is a Markov chain (instead of a semi-Markov chain), the observation and the hidden spaces are general and the time is discrete, then the corresponding models are known as "state space models".

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