Coupling a power system model with a hydrological model improves the representation of sub-monthly hydropower flexibility
Baratgin L., Quirion P., Polcher J., Dumas P.. 2025. Applied Energy, 401 (Part B) : 16 p..
Integrating large amounts of variable renewable power generation increases the need for flexible resources in the power system. Hydropower can be a precious asset for managing the variability in the grid. However, it will be subject to evolving constraints related to changes in the water resources and the operation of multi-purpose reservoirs. This study explores the value of coupling a power system model with a hydrological model that represents the operation of hydroelectric dams, to simulate an hourly hydropower schedule consistent with a realistic management of the hydropower reservoirs at the national grid level. We model the French power system with the optimization model EOLES-Dispatch and assess the impact of the coupling with the ORCHIDEE model, which represents hydropower management. We find that this new method allows us to simulate a hydropower schedule closer to the observed production, while power system models tend to overestimate the flexibility of hydropower. Considering a prospective 2050 power mix, we also find that accounting for these additional constraints leads to more frequent unsatisfied demand, which is underestimated by the usual representation of hydropower. Such a coupling of hydrological and power system modeling paves the way for a more robust representation of power dispatch in future power mixes, taking into account the joint evolution of water resources and power systems.
Mots-clés : modèle de simulation; énergie hydroélectrique; énergie hydraulique; production énergétique; réservoir d'eau; hydrologie; politique énergétique; modèle mathématique; production d'énergie hydroélectrique; changement climatique; lutte anti-inondation; france
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Agents Cirad, auteurs de cette publication :
- Dumas Patrice — Es / UMR CIRED
