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Increasing tree size across Amazonia

Esquivel-Muelbert A., Banbury Morgan R., Brienen R., Gloor E., Lewis S.L., Dexter K.G., Almeida E., Almeida de Oliveira E., Alves de Oliveira A.C., Andrade A., Aparecida Vieira S., Aragao L.E.O.C., Araujo-Murakami A., Arets E., Arroyo L., Aymard Corredor G.A., Banki O., Barbosa de Camargo P., Barroso J., Blanc L., Brown F., Camargo J.L.C., Castro W., Chama Moscoso V., Chave J., Chavez E., Comiskey J.A., da Costa A.C.L., del Aguila Pasquel J., Derroire G., Di Fiore A., Fauset S., Feldpausch T.R., Flores Llampazo G., Guillen Villaroel R., Herrera R., Higuchi N., Honorio Coronado E.N., Huamantupa-Chuquimaco I., Huaraca Huasco W., Jimenez E., Killeen T., Laurance S.G.W., Laurance W.F., Levesley A., Lopez-Gonzalez G., Malhi Y., Marimon B., Marimon Junior B.H., Matias de Almeida Reis S., Mendoza Bautista C., Mendoza Polo I., Monteagudo-Mendoza A., Morandi P.S., Nogueira Lima A.J., Nuñez Vargas P., Pallqui Camacho N.C., Parada Gutierrez A., Peacock J., Peñuela-Mora M.C., Pickavance G.C., Pipo. 2025. Nature Plants, 11 (10) : p. 2016-2025.

DOI: 10.24433/CO.0443999.v2

DOI: 10.1038/s41477-025-02097-4

Climate change and increasing availability of resources such as carbon dioxide are modifying forest functioning worldwide, but the effects of these changes on forest structure are unclear. As additional resources become available, for example, through CO2 fertilization or nitrogen deposition, large trees, with greater access to light, may be expected to gain further advantages. Conversely, smaller light-suppressed trees might benefit more if their light compensation point changes, while bigger trees may be the most negatively impacted by increasing heat and drought. We assessed recent changes in the structure of Earth's largest tropical forest by analysing 30¿years of Amazonian tree records across 188 mature forest plots. We find that, at a stand level, trees have become larger over time, with mean tree basal area increasing by 3.3% per decade (95% CI 2.4; 4.1). Larger trees have increased in both number and size, yet we observed similar rates of relative size gain in large and small trees. This evidence is consistent with a resource-driven boost for larger trees but also a reduction in suppression among smaller trees. These results, especially the persistence and consistency of tree size increases across Amazonian forest plots, communities and regions, indicate that any negative impacts of climate change on forests and large trees here have so far been mitigated by the positive effects of increased resources.

Mots-clés : forêt tropicale; changement climatique; arbre forestier; écologie forestière; peuplement forestier; effets du changement climatique; ressource forestière; accroissement du diamètre; forêt tropicale humide; structure du peuplement; dendrométrie; amazonie

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